Severe Weather Live Coverage, Tornadoes, Damaging winds, Large Hail - Winter Storm Isaiah

Winter Storm Isaiah brings a Moderate Risk for Severe weather as we cover this live. Winter Storm Isaiah is also bringing Historic amounts of Ice, sleet with 10 to 15 inches of snow across the great lakes.

DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis depicts a weak low/frontal wave over the north-central Texas/far south-central Oklahoma area, along a baroclinic zone extending from central Missouri southwestward across the eastern half of Oklahoma, and then south-southwestward across central Texas. Thunderstorms are currently evolving linearly along the cold-frontal portion of the boundary across Texas, with a well-developed supercell noted within the band southwest of the DFW Metroplex, moving north-northeast at 45kt. Farther northeast, across the eastern Oklahoma/northwestern Arkansas vicinity, a couple of bowing clusters of storms are moving quickly northeastward in the vicinity of the warm-frontal portion of the baroclinic zone, where damaging wind risk is evident.

Meanwhile, a warm/moist/unstable -- but slightly capped -- warm sector is indicated ahead of the line, across east Texas and the Arklatex region. Storms have been slow to organize across this area ahead of the frontal band of cells, but -- aided by a very favorably-sheared environment -- a recent supercell has evolved in the Corsicana vicinity, which remains capable of producing severe
weather including tornado potential.

With time, the frontal band of storms will continue moving eastward, posing mainly a damaging wind risk, though with some tornado potential with embedded rotating updrafts within the band. Ahead of the line, warm-sector storms are forecast to gradually increase in coverage/organization -- and these more isolated cells will likely be accompanied by greater risk for tornadoes, in addition to wind-damage potential.

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