(30 Nov 2019) BLACK FRIDAY SHOPPERS BRAVE THE COLD IN NEW YORK Black Friday enthusiasts woke up before dawn and traveled cross-state to their favorite malls in search of hot deals, kicking off a shortened shopping season that intensified the scramble between Thanksgiving and Christmas.
But the ever-growing popularity of online shopping and holiday discounts that started weeks earlier dampened the frenzy. This year, more people got a head start on gift-hunting, lured by deals from retailers trying to compensate for the shorter season.
The shopping season is the shortest since 2013 because Thanksgiving fell on the last Thursday in November - the latest possible date it could be.
It was mixed messages from shoppers like Terri Rickert and Babatunde Lewis on the streets of New York.
Rickert told the Associated Press she was thrilled with the deals she got, and while Lewis also did well, he was hoping to find steeper deals as it gets closer to Christmas.
The National Retail Federation, the nation’s largest retail trade group, baked the shorter season into its forecast, but it says the real drivers will be the job market. It forecasts that holiday sales will rise between 3.8% and 4.2%, an increase from the disappointing 2.1% growth in the November and December 2018 period that came well short of the group’s prediction.
NRF expects online and catalog sales, which are included in the total, to increase between 11% and 14% for the holiday period.
Last year’s holiday sales were hurt by turmoil over the White House trade policy with China and a delay of nearly a month in data collection because of a government shutdown. This year’s holiday forecast is above the average holiday sales growth of 3.7% over the previous five years.
Marshal Cohen, chief industry analyst at market research firm NPD Group Inc., says he doesn't believe a shorter season will affect overall sales. But early discounts will likely diminish Black Friday’s impact, he said. In terms of the busiest day of the year, it will be a toss-up between Black Friday and the last Saturday before Christmas.
"We still have the same amount of money to spend regardless of whether the season is longer or shorter,” he said.
More than half of consumers started their holiday shopping early this year, and nearly a quarter of purchases have already been made, according to the annual survey released by the NRF and Prosper Insights & Analytics.
Adobe Analytics predicts a loss of $1 billion in online revenue from a shortened season. Still, it expects online sales will reach $143.7 billion, up 14.1% from last year's holiday season.
Adobe Analytics said Thanksgiving Day set records for online shopping. Consumers spent $4.2 billion on Thanksgiving, a 14.5% increase from the holiday a year ago. Black Friday was on track to hit $7.4 billion.
As online sales surged, some retailers including Costco.com and H&M grappled with brief outages, according to technology company Catchpoint.
Target reported Friday that 1 million more customers used its app to shop Black Friday deals compared with last year. The discounter said customers bought big ticket items like TVs, Apple iPads and Apple Watches.
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