SUMMARY...Initially elevated convection has developed to the south of Amarillo, Texas with further attempts at initiation along the dryline southeastward towards Childress, Texas. Weak elevated instability and cold temperatures aloft will support an initial marginally severe hail threat. More robust development is expected to evolve out of this initial activity within the next few hours. DISCUSSION...Strong forcing from an approaching upper-level shortwave trough has helped to initiate elevated convection to the south of AMA sooner than guidance has forecast. Meager instability of perhaps 500 J/kg will temper the initial severe threat from the storms; however, around 30 kts of effective shear, very steep mid-level lapse rates, and cold temperatures aloft will support marginally severe hail.
The greater threat for severe weather appears to be an hour or two away from materializing along a dryline from AMA to CDS and a quasi-stationary front from AMA to ICT. Current visible satellite imagery shows agitated cumulus developing along the aforementioned dryline. While the boundary layer has yet to destabilize, surface observations have been a few degrees warmer than guidance. As further heating occurs across the eastern Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma and vicinity, dewpoints in the upper-50s to low-60s will support MLCAPE values of at least 1500-2000 J/kg. Given the observational trends, these initial, shallow thunderstorms are expected to deepen with time into more robust, organized convection capable of large hail and severe wind gusts. Relatively weak low-level shear should keep the tornado threat low.
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